A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. Flight Center. levels. google_ad_width = 160; Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. As the forecast season progresses, Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. google_ad_width = 160; KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. n$L{Z. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. With low-runoff conditions and . The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. It can store about five times the average annual flow. Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. Gas Prices on Lake There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; Climate change also plays a part. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | His freelance Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Gas Prices on Lake Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Detailed Map of Powell It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. google_ad_height = 600; monthly forecasts become more accurate. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. Credit: Alex Hager. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. 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